The Next #1?

[The Constructivist]

Over at Mostly Harmless I just surveyed the brief careers of the Junior Mints and Super Sophs--the classes of 2006 and 2007--with an eye toward figuring out who will replace Lorena Ochoa as #1 in the world of women's golf.

http://mlyhlss.blogspot.com/2008/04/best-of-young-guns-april-2008-edition.html

I narrowed it down to my top 10 over at Waggle Room and rattled off another 12 names from Ochoa's generation and older ones, along with a handful of rookies, all of whom I think are the top prospects.

http://www.waggleroom.com/story/2008/4/30/51255/8747

I haven't really thought about an overall ranking of current players on tour with the best odds of becoming the first to supplant La Reina all that carefully, but I suppose if pressed it would look something like this:

1. Suzann Pettersen
2. Jee Young Lee
3. Paula Creamer
4. Hee-Won Han
5. Seon Hwa Lee
6. Angela Park
7. Mi Hyun Kim
8. Jeong Jang
9. Ya Ni Tseng
10. Momoko Ueda

Curious to hear what you all think!

[hounddog]

You left Annika off the list, and I think that's probably correct. She isn't going to catch Lorena in 2008 and I expect her to dial back the intensity a bit next year after she gets married.

Can't argue with your top three. I would probably have included Ji-Yai Shin and Jane Park in there somewhere and left out Peanut (don't take offense folks!) and either Tseng or Ueda.

I voted "someone not yet on tour", primarily thinking of Shin, but not necessarily. Ochoa's going to be good for awhile.
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[The Constructivist]

Let's imagine for a second who could be in the class of '09:

Ji-Yai Shin from the KLPGA
Sakura Yokomine from the JLPGA
Vicky Hurst and Mi Jung Hur (sp.?) from the Futures Tour
Stacy Lewis from the NCAA (and who else? I don't follow college golf at all beyond being a Tiffany Joh fan)
Michelle Wie (if she does well in Q-School, that is, or somehow finishes well in the last remaining LPGA events she gets invited to, or accepts a bunch of Futures Tour invitations and plays well enough there to get top 5)

Who am I missing?

[HappyFan]

Amy Yang might be exempt. That kid has a bright future once she gets used to playing pro golf full time.

Song Hee Kim has a ton of potential and is starting to realize it.

And though things are not looking good for her these days, I refuse to give up on SE RI PAK!
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[Chigger]

[The Constructivist]

Not that it matters if she decides to turn pro before graduating....

[bangkokbobby]

I voted for "someone not on tour" for these reasons:

(granted, I could be wrong about this) but I think I've seen enough of Pettersen, Creamer and Hee Won Mom to say they will always be great players but I doubt they will be #1...although you have to give them time...it took Lorena time.

Jee Young Lee I see as a future star, but more along the lines of what Grace did her Major winning season...win a couple of tourneys a year...maybe a Major here or there...but not Se Ri Pak at her peak level...again, I could be wrong...but I see Grace level in Jee Young...but maybe not Se Ri, who herself was never #1...

Seon Hwa Lee...still flying under the radar...you know...it would be a surprise...but not a huge surprise...but I don't think so...

I do think Annika should be on the list, even though I don't think she'll catch Lorena...but I think she has a better chance than anybody else on the lise...but it's also a question of time...the others will be on tour a far longer time into the future than Annika...

I think Song Hee Kim is starting to show the goods she showed on the Futures Tour...look out for her.

Also, Momoko Ueda is full of potential as well.

And although I'm sure to get flogged for saying this...but if she can dump Leadbetter and get her head on straight...don't count out Michelle Wie...

But you know, all of these players have potential...but what does that mean...that they'll be great players...that's not enough to be #1...we're talking 20+ Top 10s, maybe 5 or 6 wins...or more, no prolonged multi-week slumps...again, look at how great Se Ri was in her best years and she was never #1...I don't know if I think any of the players here, save for Annika, have the kind of potential to surpass Se Ri's best years, which is what they would have to do probably to be #1
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[suns]

Short hitters are unlikely to reach #1 (hasn't happened for at least 15 years) so that leaves us with Pettersen, Lee and Tseng. I doubt any of them are going to be consistent enough to challenge 2007 or 2008 version of Ochoa (may be Tseng?), but it's possible that Lorena will have a more mediocre season some time down the road (like Annika in 1999/99). But still it's probably more than 50/50 that next #1 is not on tour yet...

Annika is too old and not long enough any more to get back to #1.

[The Constructivist]

you talking under 250? or under 260? I'm thinking the latter b/c Annika's regularly in the 250s now.

once LPGA.com gets its stats page in order, I'll be able to back this up, but I believe Ueda hits it in the 260s. but she's not even in Hound Dog's top 30 in total driving (weighted average of actual distance and accuracy stats):

http://hdlpga.blogspot.com/2008/04/total-driving.html

I'm now wondering if he's rethinking his "stat relevance" piece from last winter:

http://hdlpga.blogspot.com/2007/12/stat-relevance.html

My thinking is that whoever's going to be the next #1 has to get their A-game close to Lorena's and be at least as consistent as she is in playing at that level from round to round--for a two-year period. Waiting for her to come back to the field will require a lot of patience. I guess what I'm asking is who on tour now has the capacity to make that quantum leap and is most likely to actually do it.

Distance is only one part of that picture.

[hounddog]

Ueda was averaging 263.9 prior to the Stanford Int. She ranked 74th in total driving because she's hitting less than 61% of the fairways.

Why do you think I should be "rethinking" the Stat Relevance post? I was planning on looking at it again after the season to see if the same trends hold but I haven't seen anything so far to suggest that I was wrong about anything. Not that I've looked real close.

Suns, you are correct about #1 for the last 15 years being a long player IF you assume that Annika has always been long. I haven't seen any distance numbers from the '90s (or the early '00s for that matter) to back that up or refute it. I had heard Annika picked up distance gradually from her workout routine and was originally not one of the longer hitters. Additionally, the last 15 years really only covers four players - Annika, Webb, Ochoa and Davies - so the fact they are long may just be coincidental. They are (or were) pretty good at the rest of their games too.
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[JLindebergFan]

I picked S H Lee...
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[The Constructivist]

HD, maybe there's more of a correlation between your total distance stat and your final rankings than either driving distance or accuracy taken separately?

[hounddog]

[suns]

[suns]